The standard of proof under s 17(3) of the Crimes (Serious Sex Offenders) Act 2006 (NSW) is a statutory standard higher than the civil standard but lower than the criminal standard. 'Likely' in this context means 'probable' as distinct from merely 'possible' — it is not to be equated with 'a real and not remote chance'. STATIC-99 actuarial scores alone are insufficient to satisfy the statutory standard; they must be supplemented by clinical assessment of individual risk factors. The absence of suitable community-based intensive treatment programs for high-risk sex offenders is a significant factor in determining that adequate supervision cannot be provided by an extended supervision order. The court retains discretion as to the duration of a continuing detention order and is not bound to impose the maximum period sought.
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