In applications for extended supervision orders under s 11(1) of the Serious Sex Offenders Monitoring Act 2005 (Vic), 'likely to commit a relevant offence' means 'more likely than not to commit a relevant offence' — a probability greater than 50 per cent. The earlier decision in TSL, which held that a less than 50 per cent chance could suffice, is no longer to be followed. Where the expert risk assessment is cogent and unchallenged, a judge should ordinarily be slow to depart from it, and personality traits or unsavoury conduct that are not empirically linked to reoffending risk cannot support an adverse inference. Nettle JA's separate reasons provide early guidance on the application of s 32 of the Charter, endorsing the Poplar approach from the UK.
The full text is available to signed-in members, including the 74 later cases that cite this judgment.
13 of the 74 citing cases carry a classified treatment. How each court treated it is available to signed-in members.