Coincidence evidence under s 98 of the Evidence Act 2008 does not require proof of 'striking similarity' in modus operandi; the statutory test of 'significant probative value' is the sole criterion, and Tognolini is confined to its particular facts. YouTube videos and internet content expressing ideological justification for criminal conduct are admissible as state of mind evidence relevant to motive, not tendency evidence, where they demonstrate the accused's attitude and intention. In sentencing for arson, where an offender's autism spectrum disorder has a relevant causal connection to the offending, the sentencing judge must find that moral culpability is moderated to a degree, even where the offender understood the nature and wrongfulness of the conduct.
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